Tennessee State
2-1
#11Tennessee
2-0
Win Probability
Tennessee hosts Tennessee State in a matchup where the simulation favors the Volunteers decisively. AccuScore projects a comfortable margin built on Tennessee's offensive firepower—the model gives Tennessee's lead scorer a 73% chance to exceed 19 points and projects their second option to clear 15 points in 68% of outcomes. Tennessee State's 2-1 record comes against weaker competition, and the Volunteers' depth should exploit that gap. In games shaped this way historically, AccuScore's favored side won 97 of its last 100 matchups. For the Commodores to pull the upset, their perimeter shooting would need to approach 40% from three while holding Tennessee below its season pace.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TENN | EV | TNST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -50000 | -0.5% | +4000 | -27.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -20000 | -0.3% | +6000 | -16.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -0.5% | +171 | -48.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -108 | -1.1% | -112 | -3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -1.5% | -110 | -3.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -1.5% | -110 | -3.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -1.5% | -110 | -3.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 154.5 | -443 | -18.9% | -299 | -17.2% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Tennessee 99% to beat Tennessee State (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tennessee the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tennessee a 99% chance of beating Tennessee State, against 1% for Tennessee State. Tennessee are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Tennessee State (0-1 so far) project to finish 13.4–10.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 21% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tennessee (2-0 so far) project to finish 21.2–8.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 86% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee State | 13.4–10.6 | 28% | 21% |
| Tennessee | 21.2–8.8 | 14% | 86% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Tennessee State and Tennessee come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tennessee State have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
Tennessee have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Tennessee State 0, Tennessee 1. The last meeting, on Nov 19, 2025, finished Tennessee State 60, Tennessee 89.