Northern Arizona
0-3
#24Kentucky
2-1
Win Probability
Northern Arizona travels to Lexington to face Kentucky in a matchup the simulation favors decisively to the home side. The Wildcats project to win by a substantial margin, with the model's strength at this confidence level borne out by history: in 621 comparable games, the favored side won 97 percent. Northern Arizona's depth behind the arc will matter, but Kentucky's offensive firepower—particularly through its interior presence—should prove too much. For the Laxmen to stay competitive, they would need to force turnovers at an unusually high rate and hit at a pace well above their season average; neither is likely.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UK | EV | NAU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -100000 | -0.2% | +15000 | -12.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 155.5 | -108 | -2.9% | -112 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 155.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 155.5 | -443 | -20.0% | -299 | -15.9% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Kentucky 100% to beat Northern Arizona (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Kentucky the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Kentucky a 100% chance of beating Northern Arizona, against 1% for Northern Arizona. Kentucky are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northern Arizona (0-3 so far) project to finish 7.0–21.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Kentucky (2-1 so far) project to finish 18.4–13.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 59% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Arizona | 7.0–21.0 | 1% | 1% |
| Kentucky | 18.4–13.6 | 3% | 59% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Northern Arizona and Kentucky come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Northern Arizona have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).
Kentucky have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).