NCAAB
Ohio
2-0
Purdue
1-2
Win Probability
Ohio travels to West Lafayette to face Purdue in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the home side. Purdue's depth will be tested early; the Bobcats arrive undefeated but have faced minimal resistance in their first two games. On games shaped this way—where one team is favored this decisively—AccuScore's pick has won 97 percent of 621 graded matchups. Ohio would need to replicate its efficient offensive execution from the road and force Purdue into uncharacteristic turnovers to pull the upset, a combination that becomes exponentially harder in a hostile environment.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | PUR | EV | OHIO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3600 | -1.0% | +1500 | -13.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4500 | -1.2% | +1600 | -10.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -4000 | -1.1% | +1800 | -6.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -2659 | -0.5% | +286 | -41.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | +0.5% | -110 | -5.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | +3.1% | -110 | -7.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | +0.5% | -110 | -5.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 153 | -110 | +1.8% | -110 | -6.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 152.5 | -443 | -15.9% | -299 | -20.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Purdue 95% to beat Ohio (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Purdue the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Purdue a 95% chance of beating Ohio, against 5% for Ohio. Purdue are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Ohio (2-0 so far) project to finish 15.8–13.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Purdue (1-2 so far) project to finish 20.1–11.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 80% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Ohio and Purdue come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met once since 2018: Ohio 0, Purdue 1. The last meeting, on Dec 20, 2018, finished Ohio 67, Purdue 95.