NCAAB
Southern Miss
2-1
Texas State
3-0
Win Probability
Southern Miss travels to face Texas State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Eagles' upset hopes rest on slowing Texas State's scoring; AccuScore projects the Bobcats to 78.4 points, well above Southern Miss's projected 66.7. On games shaped this way across the model's record, the favoured side won 92 of its last 100. Southern Miss has shown it can compete at this level at 2-1, but would need a defensive effort sharp enough to hold Texas State well below its simulation mean—a tall order on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TXST | EV | USM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -675 | -1.6% | +490 | -3.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -950 | -3.4% | +610 | +5.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -900 | -3.2% | +600 | +4.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | -7.1% | +232 | -23.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | +0.9% | -110 | -5.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 143.5 | -115 | -0.2% | -105 | -4.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | +0.9% | -110 | -5.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | +0.9% | -110 | -5.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | +0.9% | -110 | -5.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State 84% to beat Southern Miss (16%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State the more likely winner at 84%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas State a 84% chance of beating Southern Miss, against 16% for Southern Miss. Texas State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Southern Miss (1-1 so far) project to finish 14.0–16.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas State (2-0 so far) project to finish 15.8–15.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Southern Miss | 14.0–16.0 | 6% | 5% |
| Texas State | 15.8–15.2 | 1% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Southern Miss and Texas State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Southern Miss have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Texas State have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2026: Southern Miss 2, Texas State 1. The last meeting, on Mar 6, 2026, finished Southern Miss 81, Texas State 77.