Illinois State
1-2
North Dakota State
1-3
Win Probability
Illinois State travels to North Dakota State in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the Redbirds. The model projects a low-scoring affair that hinges on perimeter shooting: Illinois State's guard play will need to stay efficient, while North Dakota State must keep the game tight through defensive pressure. In 2,205 graded games where AccuScore favored a side this strongly, that side won 68% of the time. For the Bison to pull the upset at home, they would need to force Illinois State into a shooting slump and control the pace tightly enough to keep possessions scarce.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NDSU | EV | ILST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +145 | -3.0% | -175 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +150 | -2.0% | -182 | -2.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +150 | -2.0% | -180 | -2.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -181 | -20.2% | -628 | -14.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -2.0% | -110 | -2.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -6.9% | -110 | +2.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 149 | -110 | -3.2% | -110 | -1.3% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Illinois State 62% to beat North Dakota State (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Illinois State the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives North Dakota State a 38% chance of beating Illinois State, against 62% for Illinois State. North Dakota State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Illinois State (0-2 so far) project to finish 17.0–13.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 18% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
North Dakota State (0-3 so far) project to finish 13.5–15.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Illinois State | 17.0–13.0 | 16% | 18% |
| North Dakota State | 13.5–15.5 | 24% | 19% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Illinois State and North Dakota State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Illinois State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
North Dakota State have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2023: Illinois State 1, North Dakota State 0. The last meeting, on Dec 17, 2023, finished North Dakota State 65, Illinois State 75.