Stanford
3-0
UNLV
2-0
Win Probability
Stanford travels to Las Vegas to face UNLV in a matchup between unbeaten teams, with the simulation favoring the Cardinal slightly. The game figures as a near-toss, and hinges on three-point shooting: Stanford's projections show a 61% chance Tyrell Jones exceeds three made threes, while UNLV's Donovan Williams has a 58% chance to clear that same mark. On games shaped this closely, the favored side has won 57% of the time across AccuScore's record. For UNLV to pull the upset at home, the Rebels would need to control the boards and limit Stanford's perimeter accuracy beyond what the simulation expects.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UNLV | EV | STAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -105 | -3.8% | -115 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -105 | -3.8% | -114 | -0.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -105 | -3.8% | -115 | -0.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -110 | -4.8% | -110 | +0.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -206 | -14.9% | -166 | -7.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | +4.8% | -110 | -9.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | +2.3% | -110 | -6.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | +4.8% | -110 | -9.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | +4.8% | -110 | -9.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 151 | -110 | +3.6% | -110 | -8.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 52.7%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Stanford 53% to beat UNLV (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Stanford the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UNLV a 47% chance of beating Stanford, against 53% for Stanford. UNLV are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Stanford (3-0 so far) project to finish 17.6–13.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 25% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UNLV (2-0 so far) project to finish 17.5–12.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Stanford and UNLV come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met once since 2025: Stanford 0, UNLV 1. The last meeting, on Dec 7, 2025, finished UNLV 75, Stanford 74.