NCAAB
Ball State
1-2
SMU
3-0
Win Probability
Ball State travels to face SMU in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Cardinals enter at 1-2 while SMU sits unbeaten at 3-0, and the gap in talent shows clearly in the projected offensive output. Ball State will need to generate stops it has not consistently managed this season, while SMU's attack projects to sustain its early-season efficiency. On games shaped this way—where one team's win probability sits between 90 and 100 percent—AccuScore's favoured side won 97 percent of 621 graded contests. For Ball State to pull off an upset, it would have to overcome both its current record and a simulation that sees little path to victory.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SMU | EV | BALL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6500 | -0.8% | +2000 | -17.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -1.1% | +2400 | -11.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -9000 | -1.0% | +2800 | -5.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -1.1% | +222 | -45.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 150.5 | -115 | -4.5% | -105 | +0.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 150.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 151 | -110 | -4.6% | -110 | +0.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes SMU 97% to beat Ball State (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes SMU the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives SMU a 97% chance of beating Ball State, against 3% for Ball State. SMU are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Ball State (0-2 so far) project to finish 8.7–19.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
SMU (3-0 so far) project to finish 18.8–13.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 34% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ball State | 8.7–19.3 | 1% | 1% |
| SMU | 18.8–13.2 | 2% | 34% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Ball State and SMU come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Ball State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).