NCAAB
UC San Diego
2-0
Utah State
3-0
Win Probability
Utah State hosts UC San Diego in a game where the simulation strongly favours the Aggies. In 50,000 trials, Utah State's depth proved decisive, with the model projecting a double-digit margin. UC San Diego will need to lean heavily on Isaac Gomez and Jasssson Delaire to keep pace, but both would have to exceed their projected scoring contributions significantly for the Utes to stay within striking distance. On games shaped this way historically, AccuScore's favoured side has won 97 of its last 100. Utah State's tournament experience and home court stand as the primary obstacles UC San Diego must overcome.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | USU | EV | UCSD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -800 | +1.6% | +550 | -23.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1100 | +0.0% | +680 | -17.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1000 | +0.4% | +650 | -18.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -3.7% | +191 | -37.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -3.8% | -105 | -0.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -2.8% | -110 | -1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -3.8% | -105 | -0.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | -2.8% | -110 | -1.7% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Utah State 92% to beat UC San Diego (8%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Utah State the more likely winner at 92%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah State a 92% chance of beating UC San Diego, against 8% for UC San Diego. Utah State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UC San Diego (1-0 so far) project to finish 15.6–13.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Utah State (3-0 so far) project to finish 23.0–8.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 68% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC San Diego | 15.6–13.4 | 10% | 9% |
| Utah State | 23.0–8.0 | 24% | 68% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UC San Diego and Utah State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Utah State have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).