NCAAB
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
2-1
Florida State
2-1
Win Probability
Florida State hosts Texas A&M-Corpus Christi with the simulation strongly favoring the home side. The Seminoles project to win by twenty points, built on their ability to control pace and limit possessions. In games where the model has leaned this decisively toward the home team, that side won 97 percent of 622 past matchups. For the Islanders to pull off the upset, they would need to force turnovers at an elite rate and keep Florida State from establishing the kind of offensive rhythm their projection assumes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | FSU | EV | AMCC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -4500 | -1.2% | +1700 | -8.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10000 | -1.8% | +1750 | -7.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -4000 | -1.1% | +1800 | -6.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -3246 | -0.8% | +1418 | -15.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | +0.5% | -110 | -5.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 149.5 | -105 | -3.2% | -115 | -1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 148.5 | -115 | -2.9% | -105 | -1.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 148.5 | -105 | -0.8% | -115 | -3.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 149.5 | -115 | -5.2% | -172 | -8.8% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State 95% to beat Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (5%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida State the more likely winner at 95%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida State a 95% chance of beating Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, against 5% for Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Florida State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (1-1 so far) project to finish 15.3–14.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida State (2-1 so far) project to finish 19.5–12.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 47% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas A&M-Corpus Christi | 15.3–14.7 | 11% | 10% |
| Florida State | 19.5–12.5 | 3% | 47% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Florida State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Florida State have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).