NCAAB
Florida International
2-0
Florida Gulf Coast
1-2
Win Probability
Florida International travels to face Florida Gulf Coast in a matchup where the simulation clearly favours the home side. The Eagles have won 68% of games where AccuScore has leaned this strongly in their direction across 2,205 graded contests. Florida Gulf Coast's depth will be tested early: on a per-game basis, Jalen Jordan projects to exceed 14.5 points in just under half of all outcomes, while Tavian Dunn-Martin sits near the threshold of 7.5 rebounds at 51%. For Florida International to pull off the road upset, the Panthers would need to force possessions where neither Jordan nor Dunn-Martin can impose themselves inside—difficult work against a home team with clear structural advantages in this matchup.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | FGCU | EV | FIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -166 | +1.9% | +140 | -7.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -170 | +1.5% | +140 | -7.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -197 | -1.2% | +120 | -11.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -115 | -1.8% | -105 | -2.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 64.8%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida Gulf Coast 65% to beat Florida International (35%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida Gulf Coast the more likely winner at 65%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida Gulf Coast a 65% chance of beating Florida International, against 35% for Florida International. Florida Gulf Coast are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Florida International (1-0 so far) project to finish 10.9–18.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida Gulf Coast (0-2 so far) project to finish 14.2–14.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 19% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida International | 10.9–18.1 | 3% | 3% |
| Florida Gulf Coast | 14.2–14.8 | 18% | 19% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Florida International and Florida Gulf Coast come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Florida Gulf Coast have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).