NCAAB
Mississippi Valley State
0-3
Oregon State
3-0
Win Probability
Mississippi Valley State travels to face Oregon State in a game where the simulation strongly favours the home side. AccuScore's model projects a decisive victory, and in 622 past games where it leaned this heavily toward one team, that side won 97% of the time. The game hinges on whether Mississippi Valley State can keep pace offensively; the simulation expects Oregon State to outscore the visitors by roughly 32 points. For Mississippi Valley State to pull off an upset, it would need to generate far more scoring than the model anticipates while holding Oregon State well below its projected output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | ORST | EV | MVSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -50000 | -0.1% | +8000 | -33.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -0.1% | +2925 | -44.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 154.5 | -105 | -3.8% | -115 | -0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 154 | -110 | -3.4% | -110 | -1.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 154.5 | -417 | -20.7% | -316 | -15.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State 100% to beat Mississippi Valley State (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oregon State a 100% chance of beating Mississippi Valley State, against 0% for Mississippi Valley State. Oregon State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Mississippi Valley State (0-3 so far) project to finish 5.7–27.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oregon State (3-0 so far) project to finish 17.7–13.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mississippi Valley State | 5.7–27.3 | 1% | 1% |
| Oregon State | 17.7–13.3 | 3% | 14% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Mississippi Valley State and Oregon State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Mississippi Valley State have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).
Oregon State have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).