Chicago State
2-2
San Diego
2-1
Win Probability
Chicago State travels to San Diego in a matchup where the simulation strongly favors the Toreros. The model projects a low-scoring affair centered on perimeter shooting: if Chicago State's guards can sustain three-point volume above their season rate, they create enough spacing to threaten the home side's interior. When AccuScore has leaned this decisively in past games, it won 92% of the time. Chicago State would need to overcome a significant disadvantage and force San Diego into an uncharacteristic shooting night to pull the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | USD | EV | CHST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1000 | -2.8% | +650 | +3.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1200 | -3.5% | +750 | +10.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1472 | -4.2% | +555 | -3.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 147.5 | -115 | -2.2% | -105 | -2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -3.6% | -110 | -0.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 148 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 148.5 | -443 | -20.2% | -332 | -16.6% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego 86% to beat Chicago State (14%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego the more likely winner at 86%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Diego a 86% chance of beating Chicago State, against 14% for Chicago State. San Diego are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Chicago State (2-2 so far) project to finish 10.2–21.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Diego (1-1 so far) project to finish 10.8–18.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago State | 10.2–21.8 | 6% | 9% |
| San Diego | 10.8–18.2 | 1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Chicago State and San Diego come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Chicago State have won 2 of their last 4 (W-L-W-L, most recent first).