NCAAB
West Florida
Cleveland State
1-2
Win Probability
West Florida travels to Cleveland State in a matchup the simulation treats as a coin-flip. Both teams project to 78.6 points, a dead heat that hinges on whether either side can generate enough scoring volume to push the combined total over the market line—a proposition the model rates at just 47%. On games shaped this evenly, AccuScore's lean has backed the home side 57% of the time across 6,736 graded contests. For West Florida to steal this one on the road, the Argonauts would need one of their key contributors to exceed their projection significantly while Cleveland State falls short.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UWF ML
UWF +122
+4.9% EV
47.4% leads · push 4.6%
Caesars ↗
1H CLE ML
CLE -145
-7.1% EV
48.0% leads · push 4.6%
Caesars ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CLE | EV | UWF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -175 | -10.6% | +145 | +11.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -164 | -9.7% | +136 | +8.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -170 | -10.2% | +140 | +9.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -170 | -10.2% | +143 | +10.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -165 | -9.8% | +140 | +9.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 150.5 | -108 | +12.4% | -112 | -16.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | +7.3% | -110 | -11.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | +6.1% | -105 | -11.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | +7.3% | -110 | -11.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | +7.3% | -110 | -11.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 49.9%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Cleveland State 50% to beat West Florida (50%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Cleveland State the more likely winner at 50%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Cleveland State a 50% chance of beating West Florida, against 50% for West Florida. Cleveland State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
West Florida (0-1 so far) project to finish 16.3–12.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Cleveland State (0-2 so far) project to finish 6.4–21.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| West Florida | 16.3–12.7 | 29% | 0% |
| Cleveland State | 6.4–21.6 | <1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How West Florida and Cleveland State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cleveland State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).