Montana
1-2
North Dakota
1-2
Win Probability
Montana travels to North Dakota in a matchup between two teams sitting at 1-2. The simulation leans slightly toward the home side, with the game projected as essentially even scoring. How close these teams figure to play turns on perimeter shooting: Montana's three-point volume sits at 57% and North Dakota's at 48%, a difference that compounds across forty minutes. On games where the model has favoured one side this mildly, that side has won 57% of the time historically. For Montana to pull the upset on the road, the Grizzlies would need to hold North Dakota well below its season three-point rate.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UND | EV | MONT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -118 | -1.1% | -102 | -3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -118 | -1.1% | -102 | -3.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -115 | -0.6% | -105 | -4.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -129 | -3.0% | -115 | -6.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 151.5 | -112 | -1.1% | -108 | -3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -0.6% | -110 | -3.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 151.5 | -102 | +1.2% | -125 | -6.5% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes North Dakota 53% to beat Montana (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Dakota the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives North Dakota a 53% chance of beating Montana, against 47% for Montana. North Dakota are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Montana (0-2 so far) project to finish 14.5–14.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
North Dakota (1-2 so far) project to finish 12.4–15.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Montana | 14.5–14.5 | 15% | 13% |
| North Dakota | 12.4–15.6 | 13% | 11% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Montana and North Dakota come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
North Dakota have won 1 of their last 3 (L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 8 times since 2013: Montana 7, North Dakota 1. The last meeting, on Dec 5, 2025, finished Montana 79, North Dakota 75.