NCAAB
Central Michigan
3-0
Northern Kentucky
2-2
Win Probability
Northern Kentucky hosts Central Michigan in a matchup where the simulation clearly favours the home side. The Chippewas arrive undefeated at 3-0, but the model projects a tight game that turns on perimeter shooting and ball security in the final minutes. Central Michigan will need to win the turnover battle and hit at a high clip from three; Northern Kentucky's depth and home court should be enough to edge out a close contest. When AccuScore has favoured a side this strongly in similar circumstances, that side has won 68% of the time across more than 2,200 graded games. For the visiting Chippewas to pull the upset, they would need to dictate pace and force Northern Kentucky into uncharacteristic mistakes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NKU | EV | CMU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -166 | -0.6% | +140 | -4.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -172 | -1.2% | +142 | -3.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -155 | +0.8% | +130 | -6.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -188 | -2.7% | +115 | -8.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 162.5 | -110 | +2.3% | -110 | -6.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 163.5 | -110 | -0.1% | -110 | -4.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 162.5 | -110 | +2.3% | -110 | -6.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 163 | -110 | +1.2% | -110 | -5.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 163.5 | -129 | -3.6% | -129 | -7.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 61.7%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Northern Kentucky 62% to beat Central Michigan (38%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Northern Kentucky the more likely winner at 62%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Northern Kentucky a 62% chance of beating Central Michigan, against 38% for Central Michigan. Northern Kentucky are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Central Michigan (2-0 so far) project to finish 12.1–16.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Northern Kentucky (2-2 so far) project to finish 15.8–14.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central Michigan | 12.1–16.9 | 3% | 3% |
| Northern Kentucky | 15.8–14.2 | 6% | 6% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Central Michigan and Northern Kentucky come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Central Michigan have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).
Northern Kentucky have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Central Michigan 0, Northern Kentucky 1. The last meeting, on Nov 19, 2025, finished Northern Kentucky 90, Central Michigan 66.