NCAAB
Air Force
3-1
Pacific
2-1
Win Probability
Pacific hosts Air Force in a matchup the simulation decisively favors to the home side. The Falcons travel to Stockton looking to upset a Pacific team that has won decisively in its own building, though Air Force's 3-1 record suggests they can compete. On games where the model has leaned this heavily toward one side, that side has won 92 percent of the time across 804 graded contests. Air Force's path to an upset runs through slowing Pacific's pace and forcing turnovers; the simulation projects a 14-point margin, with the game's total sitting near the boundary of over-under probability. For the Falcons to pull off the surprise, they will need to win the turnover battle and keep Pacific's shooting below what these projections assume.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | PAC | EV | AF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -675 | +1.4% | +490 | -19.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1050 | -1.0% | +660 | -10.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -850 | +0.0% | +575 | -14.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1120 | -1.3% | +663 | -9.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 163.5 | -115 | -16.3% | -105 | +12.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 162.5 | -110 | -13.5% | -110 | +9.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 165 | -110 | -19.1% | -110 | +14.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 163.5 | -105 | -14.9% | -115 | +9.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 163 | -110 | -14.5% | -110 | +10.1% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Pacific 90% to beat Air Force (11%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Pacific the more likely winner at 90%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Pacific a 90% chance of beating Air Force, against 11% for Air Force. Pacific are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Air Force (2-1 so far) project to finish 8.9–22.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Pacific (1-1 so far) project to finish 16.2–13.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Air Force and Pacific come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 3 times since 2017: Air Force 0, Pacific 3. The last meeting, on Dec 2, 2025, finished Pacific 80, Air Force 65.