NCAAB
South Dakota State
3-0
Northern Colorado
2-1
Win Probability
Northern Colorado hosts South Dakota State in a matchup where the visiting Jackrabbits hold a slight edge in the simulation. The game hinges on perimeter shooting: both teams project to launch three-pointers at volume, and whichever side converts at a higher rate is likely to pull away. In similar spots, AccuScore's favoured team has won 57 percent of 6,736 graded games. Northern Colorado would need to execute defensively in transition and limit second-chance opportunities to upset the projection. Both squads enter undefeated or nearly so, making this a genuine test early in the season.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UNCO | EV | SDST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +145 | +2.4% | -175 | -5.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +146 | +2.6% | -178 | -5.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +145 | +2.4% | -170 | -4.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +155 | +4.6% | -190 | -6.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -110 | -9.1% | -206 | -7.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -105 | -5.9% | -115 | +1.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 151.5 | -115 | -5.6% | -105 | +1.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -105 | -3.6% | -115 | -0.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | -4.7% | -110 | +0.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 151.5 | -129 | -7.8% | -120 | -1.9% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 42.8%
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AccuScore's simulation makes South Dakota State 57% to beat Northern Colorado (43%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes South Dakota State the more likely winner at 57%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Northern Colorado a 43% chance of beating South Dakota State, against 57% for South Dakota State. Northern Colorado are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
South Dakota State (2-0 so far) project to finish 17.1–9.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 24% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Northern Colorado (0-1 so far) project to finish 14.6–12.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 15% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Dakota State | 17.1–9.9 | 31% | 24% |
| Northern Colorado | 14.6–12.4 | 19% | 15% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How South Dakota State and Northern Colorado come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
South Dakota State have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Northern Colorado have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).