NCAAB
Northern Iowa
2-1
Oakland
0-5
Win Probability
This is a coin-flip between Northern Iowa and Oakland, with the simulation leaning barely toward the visiting Pancakes. The game hinges on whether either team can push the pace enough to drive the combined score over the market's total; the model projects a near-deadlock in the low 70s. On games shaped this way—where the lean is slight and the outcome nearly even—AccuScore's pick has won 57% of 6,736 graded contests. Oakland would need to hold Northern Iowa well below its projection to pull the upset at home.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | OAK | EV | UNI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -118 | -4.9% | -102 | +0.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -115 | -4.4% | -105 | -0.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -129 | -6.7% | -115 | -2.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -1.3% | -110 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 157.5 | -110 | -3.8% | -110 | -0.7% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 157 | -110 | -2.5% | -110 | -1.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 156.5 | -129 | -4.7% | -129 | -6.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.2%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Northern Iowa 51% to beat Oakland (49%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Northern Iowa the more likely winner at 51%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oakland a 49% chance of beating Northern Iowa, against 51% for Northern Iowa. Oakland are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Northern Iowa (1-1 so far) project to finish 16.1–13.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 16% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oakland (0-5 so far) project to finish 11.2–20.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 6% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Iowa | 16.1–13.9 | 14% | 16% |
| Oakland | 11.2–20.8 | 6% | 6% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Northern Iowa and Oakland come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oakland have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Northern Iowa 1, Oakland 0. The last meeting, on Dec 13, 2025, finished Oakland 63, Northern Iowa 75.