NCAAB
UC Riverside
3-0
Fresno State
2-1
Win Probability
UC Riverside travels to Fresno State as a team still undefeated but facing a simulation that leans clearly toward the hosts. The model projects a low-scoring affair where perimeter shooting will decide the margin: if UC Riverside's guards can sustain their pace and Fresno State's ball handlers turn the ball over at elevated rates, the Highlanders have the talent to steal this one on the road. On games where the simulation has favored one side this strongly, that side has won 68% of the time across 2,206 graded matchups. For UC Riverside to pull off the upset, their offensive execution would need to exceed projections while Fresno State's efficiency dips below its season baseline.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | FRES | EV | UCR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -225 | -4.1% | +185 | +2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -210 | -3.1% | +176 | +0.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -220 | -3.8% | +180 | +1.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -247 | -5.4% | -110 | -15.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.9% | -110 | -0.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.9% | -110 | -0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.9% | -110 | -0.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.9% | -110 | -0.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -3.9% | -110 | -0.6% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 36.5%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Fresno State 64% to beat UC Riverside (37%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Fresno State the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Fresno State a 64% chance of beating UC Riverside, against 37% for UC Riverside. Fresno State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UC Riverside (2-0 so far) project to finish 16.1–13.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Fresno State (1-1 so far) project to finish 9.6–20.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC Riverside | 16.1–13.9 | 9% | 8% |
| Fresno State | 9.6–20.4 | <1% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UC Riverside and Fresno State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UC Riverside have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).