NCAAB
South Alabama
2-2
North Texas
2-1
Win Probability
North Texas hosts South Alabama in a game where the simulation decisively favors the Jaguars. The Mean Green's depth will be tested early: North Texas projects to score 74.2 points, and South Alabama must find scoring from its perimeter if it hopes to stay close. The deciding factor is pace—with a combined projection of 139.5 points, the game hinges on whether these teams can sustain offensive rhythm or whether defensive adjustments slow the tempo. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's favored side won 81% of its 1,356 graded matchups. For South Alabama to pull the upset, it would need to hold North Texas well below projection while generating efficient scoring on limited possessions.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UNT | EV | USA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -410 | -1.1% | +320 | -5.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -420 | -1.3% | +320 | -5.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -400 | -0.9% | +310 | -6.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -541 | -3.4% | +222 | -15.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 136.5 | -115 | +2.8% | -105 | -7.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 136.5 | -115 | +2.8% | -105 | -7.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 136.5 | -110 | +3.9% | -110 | -8.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 136.5 | -115 | +2.8% | -105 | -7.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 137 | -110 | +2.8% | -110 | -7.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes North Texas 79% to beat South Alabama (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Texas the more likely winner at 79%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives North Texas a 79% chance of beating South Alabama, against 21% for South Alabama. North Texas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
South Alabama (2-2 so far) project to finish 16.0–13.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
North Texas (1-1 so far) project to finish 19.4–10.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama | 16.0–13.0 | 10% | 8% |
| North Texas | 19.4–10.6 | 18% | 23% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How South Alabama and North Texas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
South Alabama have won 2 of their last 3 (W-W-L, most recent first).
North Texas have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: South Alabama 0, North Texas 1. The last meeting, on Dec 14, 2025, finished North Texas 58, South Alabama 57.