NCAAB
Colorado
2-1
Providence
2-1
Win Probability
Colorado travels to Providence in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Friars. The model projects a low-scoring affair centered on Colorado's ability to generate offense on the road—a team shooting 43% from three has a 61% chance of topping that mark in this game, while Providence's interior presence will anchor a defense built to limit second chances. On games shaped like this one, the favored side has won 81% of the time across a large historical sample. Colorado would need to force turnovers and win the rebounding battle to pull off the upset; any path to victory runs through controlling the glass and keeping Providence off the free-throw line.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | PROV | EV | COLO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -490 | -3.0% | +365 | +0.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -500 | -3.1% | +370 | +1.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -582 | -4.2% | +386 | +3.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -105 | -2.6% | -115 | -2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | +1.1% | -110 | -5.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | +1.1% | -110 | -5.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | +1.1% | -110 | -5.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Providence 78% to beat Colorado (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Providence the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Providence a 78% chance of beating Colorado, against 22% for Colorado. Providence are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Colorado (2-1 so far) project to finish 14.8–16.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Providence (2-1 so far) project to finish 15.5–14.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 32% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Colorado | 14.8–16.2 | <1% | 22% |
| Providence | 15.5–14.5 | 2% | 32% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Colorado and Providence come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Colorado have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
Providence have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Colorado 1, Providence 0. The last meeting, on Nov 13, 2025, finished Providence 88, Colorado 97.