Pennsylvania
1-2
Saint Joseph's
3-0
Win Probability
Saint Joseph's hosts Pennsylvania in a matchup where the simulation clearly favours the Hawks. The Quakers arrive at 1–2 while Saint Joseph's sits undefeated at 3–0, and AccuScore's 50,000 simulations project a four-point margin in favour of the home side. On games where the model has leaned this strongly toward one team, that side has won 68% of the time across 2,206 historical matchups. Pennsylvania's path to an upset runs through containing Saint Joseph's in transition and forcing a lower-scoring game; the model gives only a 48% chance the combined score clears the total, suggesting offensive efficiency will determine the outcome. For the Quakers to pull the road win, they would need to generate significantly more volume than their projection suggests.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | JOES | EV | PENN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -198 | +1.8% | +164 | -8.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -200 | +1.7% | +164 | -8.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -195 | +2.1% | +160 | -9.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -236 | -1.0% | +175 | -7.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -5.4% | -105 | +1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 153 | -110 | -5.6% | -110 | +1.1% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 68.9%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Joseph's 69% to beat Pennsylvania (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Joseph's the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Saint Joseph's a 69% chance of beating Pennsylvania, against 31% for Pennsylvania. Saint Joseph's are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Pennsylvania (1-2 so far) project to finish 14.0–12.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Saint Joseph's (3-0 so far) project to finish 17.5–11.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 14.0–12.0 | 20% | 17% |
| Saint Joseph's | 17.5–11.5 | 4% | 11% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Pennsylvania and Saint Joseph's come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Pennsylvania have won 1 of their last 3 (L-W-L, most recent first).
Saint Joseph's have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2018: Pennsylvania 3, Saint Joseph's 0. The last meeting, on Nov 16, 2025, finished Saint Joseph's 74, Pennsylvania 83.