NCAAB
Brown
1-3
Siena
2-1
Win Probability
Brown travels to Siena in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the hosts. The Brown Bears enter at 1-3 while Siena holds a 2-1 record, and AccuScore's 50,000 simulations give the Saints a strong lean to win. Siena's ability to control pace and efficiency will be central; the model projects the Saints to pull away in the second half, with their defense generating enough stops to keep Brown's offense under 73 points. In games where the model has leaned this strongly toward the home side, the favored team won 81% of the time. Brown would need an unusual shooting night and forcing turnovers to overcome a Siena team built to grind out possessions.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SIE | EV | BRWN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -380 | -0.0% | +300 | -8.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -375 | +0.1% | +290 | -9.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -350 | +0.8% | +275 | -10.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -393 | -0.4% | +245 | -13.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -10.7% | -110 | +6.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -10.7% | -110 | +6.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -10.7% | -110 | +6.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | -10.7% | -110 | +6.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 156.5 | -115 | -11.5% | -105 | +7.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 79.1%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Siena 79% to beat Brown (21%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Siena the more likely winner at 79%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Siena a 79% chance of beating Brown, against 21% for Brown. Siena are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Brown (1-3 so far) project to finish 10.2–16.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Siena (2-1 so far) project to finish 20.1–11.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 23% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Brown and Siena come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 2 times since 2023: Brown 1, Siena 1. The last meeting, on Nov 6, 2025, finished Siena 62, Brown 46.