Portland State
1-2
San Francisco
3-0
Win Probability
San Francisco hosts Portland State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The Dons have started 3-0 while the Vikings arrive at 1-2, and the model projects a low-scoring affair that turns on San Francisco's ability to limit Portland State's scoring opportunities. On games shaped this way—where the favored side carried an 80-90% win probability—AccuScore's model won 92% of 804 graded contests. For Portland State to pull off the upset, the Vikings would need to generate offensive efficiency well above projection and force San Francisco into uncharacteristic shooting struggles.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | SF | EV | PRST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -110 | -1.5% | -110 | -3.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10 | -110 | -3.1% | -110 | -1.3% |
| Book | SF | EV | PRST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -480 | -1.6% | +360 | -4.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -475 | -1.5% | +360 | -4.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 143.5 | -115 | -2.0% | -105 | -2.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.6% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes San Francisco 80% to beat Portland State (20%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Francisco the more likely winner at 80%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Francisco a 80% chance of beating Portland State, against 20% for Portland State. San Francisco are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Portland State (0-2 so far) project to finish 12.3–15.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Francisco (3-0 so far) project to finish 18.9–12.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland State | 12.3–15.7 | 11% | 9% |
| San Francisco | 18.9–12.1 | 8% | 14% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Portland State and San Francisco come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Portland State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
San Francisco have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Portland State 0, San Francisco 1. The last meeting, on Nov 11, 2025, finished Portland State 70, San Francisco 80.