NCAAB
UAB
2-1
Jacksonville State
1-2
Win Probability
Jacksonville State hosts UAB in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visiting Blazers. The game hinges on perimeter shooting: UAB's offense projects to stay efficient, while Jacksonville State's defense will need to tighten up to keep pace in what figures as a low-scoring affair. In similar situations across AccuScore's record, the favored side won 57% of the time. For the Gamecocks to pull the upset at home, they would need Jacksonville State's defense to force enough turnovers to disrupt UAB's rhythm and steal possessions in the closing minutes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | JXST | EV | UAB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +130 | +4.4% | -155 | -6.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +128 | +3.9% | -154 | -6.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +130 | +4.4% | -155 | -6.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -102 | -3.2% | -215 | -11.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.1% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.1% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 47.3%
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AccuScore's simulation makes UAB 53% to beat Jacksonville State (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UAB the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Jacksonville State a 47% chance of beating UAB, against 53% for UAB. Jacksonville State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
UAB (2-1 so far) project to finish 16.9–14.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Jacksonville State (0-2 so far) project to finish 15.5–14.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UAB | 16.9–14.1 | 6% | 8% |
| Jacksonville State | 15.5–14.5 | 13% | 11% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UAB and Jacksonville State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UAB have won 2 of their last 3 (W-W-L, most recent first).
Jacksonville State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).