NCAAB
Austin Peay
2-1
Wichita State
2-1
Win Probability
Wichita State hosts Austin Peay in a game where the simulation decisively favors the Shockers. The model projects a defensive grind, with Austin Peay held to 70 points and Wichita State reaching 83. On games shaped like this one—where the home team's advantage runs this strong—AccuScore's pick has won 92% of 804 graded contests. For the Governors to pull the upset, they would need to generate efficient offense while forcing turnovers; the game turns on whether Austin Peay can keep pace when Wichita State's scoring threatens to create separation.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | WICH | EV | APSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -675 | +0.3% | +490 | -13.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -950 | -1.6% | +610 | -6.0% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -850 | -1.0% | +575 | -8.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -1274 | -2.8% | +606 | -6.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 152.5 | -115 | -1.1% | -105 | -3.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 153.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 153 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Wichita State 88% to beat Austin Peay (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wichita State the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Wichita State a 88% chance of beating Austin Peay, against 12% for Austin Peay. Wichita State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Austin Peay (0-1 so far) project to finish 13.8–14.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Wichita State (1-1 so far) project to finish 19.4–10.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 28% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Peay | 13.8–14.2 | 15% | 13% |
| Wichita State | 19.4–10.6 | 21% | 28% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Austin Peay and Wichita State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Wichita State have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).