NCAAB • Sun, Nov 15, 01:00
Sacramento State hosts UC Davis in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. The Aggies arrive at 2-1 while the Hornets stand at 1-1, and the model projects a low-scoring affair decided by Sacramento State's ability to control pace. UC Davis will need its perimeter game to function; the visitor's shot volume and three-point rate will determine whether the Aggies can stay close in a game the simulation expects to be tight late.
See the model's win probabilities, projected and most-likely score, the positive-EV edge with its price, the record behind it, and the full write-up — for this game and every game.
Free members get the daily Gold Pick delivered by email.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Sacramento State 61% to beat UC Davis (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Sacramento State the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sacramento State a 61% chance of beating UC Davis, against 39% for UC Davis. Sacramento State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UC Davis (1-1 so far) project to finish 11.1–18.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Sacramento State (0-1 so far) project to finish 10.3–18.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UC Davis | 11.1–18.9 | <1% | 1% |
| Sacramento State | 10.3–18.7 | 2% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How UC Davis and Sacramento State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UC Davis have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Sacramento State have won 0 of their last 1 (L, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2017: UC Davis 3, Sacramento State 2. The last meeting, on Nov 13, 2025, finished Sacramento State 73, UC Davis 77.