NCAAB
New Mexico
3-0
Santa Clara
4-0
Win Probability
Undefeated New Mexico travels to face undefeated Santa Clara in a matchup the model favors slightly toward the Lobos. The simulation hinges on perimeter shooting: if New Mexico's guards can sustain their stroke while Santa Clara's three-point volume stays in check, the visitors' depth should tell. On games shaped this way, the favored side won 57% of the time across a large historical sample. For Santa Clara to pull the upset at home, the Broncos would need to control pace and limit New Mexico's outside attempts to a manageable volume.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | SCU | EV | UNM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.8% |
| Book | SCU | EV | UNM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | +100 | -3.0% | -125 | -2.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 165 | -110 | -2.2% | -110 | -2.3% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico 53% to beat Santa Clara (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Santa Clara a 47% chance of beating New Mexico, against 53% for New Mexico. Santa Clara are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
New Mexico (3-0 so far) project to finish 24.0–7.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 59% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Santa Clara (4-0 so far) project to finish 22.3–8.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 47% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 24.0–7.0 | 48% | 59% |
| Santa Clara | 22.3–8.7 | 29% | 47% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How New Mexico and Santa Clara come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New Mexico have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
Santa Clara have won 4 of their last 4 (W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2011: New Mexico 1, Santa Clara 2. The last meeting, on Dec 5, 2025, finished Santa Clara 71, New Mexico 98.