The Citadel
2-1
North Florida
1-2
Win Probability
The Citadel travels to North Florida in a contest where the simulation leans slightly toward the home side. AccuScore projects a tight affair, with the outcome likely to turn on perimeter shooting: North Florida's Jalen Celestine has a 68% chance of exceeding 3.0 made threes, while The Citadel's Isaiah Stallings projects at 71% to surpass 2.5. On games shaped like this one, the favored side won 57% of the time. For The Citadel to pull the upset, Stallings will need to get hot from distance while keeping Celestine in check.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UNF | EV | CIT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -185 | -4.4% | +154 | +1.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -180 | -4.0% | +150 | +1.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -206 | -6.0% | +115 | -6.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | +1.9% | -110 | -6.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | +1.9% | -110 | -6.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 154.5 | -110 | +1.9% | -110 | -6.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 154.5 | -129 | -1.7% | -129 | -9.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 40.8%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes North Florida 59% to beat The Citadel (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Florida the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives North Florida a 59% chance of beating The Citadel, against 41% for The Citadel. North Florida are at home and favoured on these numbers.
The Citadel (0-1 so far) project to finish 10.9–18.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
North Florida (1-2 so far) project to finish 9.7–19.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Citadel | 10.9–18.1 | 3% | 3% |
| North Florida | 9.7–19.3 | 4% | 5% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How The Citadel and North Florida come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
North Florida have won 1 of their last 3 (L-L-W, most recent first).