Northern Illinois
2-2
Bellarmine
1-3
Win Probability
Northern Illinois travels to face Bellarmine in a close matchup where the simulation favors the home team slightly. The deciding factor will be perimeter scoring: Bellarmine's offense needs to stay efficient from three-point range to hold off the Huskies' balanced attack. In games where the model has leaned this way, the favored side won 57% of the time across a large sample. For Northern Illinois to pull the upset on the road, it would need to force turnovers and limit second-chance opportunities for Bellarmine's rebounders.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | BELL | EV | NIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -120 | +1.1% | +100 | -5.8% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -147 | -3.1% | -125 | -10.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 150.5 | -115 | +2.1% | -105 | -6.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 151 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 151.5 | -129 | -2.8% | -135 | -9.3% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Bellarmine 56% to beat Northern Illinois (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Bellarmine the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Bellarmine a 56% chance of beating Northern Illinois, against 44% for Northern Illinois. Bellarmine are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northern Illinois (1-2 so far) project to finish 11.8–19.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Bellarmine (0-3 so far) project to finish 10.2–18.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 7% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 11.8–19.2 | 2% | 3% |
| Bellarmine | 10.2–18.8 | 6% | 7% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Northern Illinois and Bellarmine come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Northern Illinois have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Bellarmine have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).