NCAAB
Hampton
1-2
Navy
3-1
Win Probability
Hampton travels to Navy in a matchup where the simulation favors the Midshipmen. The projected scoring is tight, with both teams clustered in the high 60s to low 70s, making this a game decided by marginal execution rather than dominant performance. Navy's offensive execution will be the fulcrum: how efficiently the Midshipmen generate points in a low-scoring frame will determine whether they can pull away. On games shaped this way—where the model's lean was this strong—the favored side won 68% of the time across more than 2,000 graded contests. Hampton's path to an upset runs through forcing Navy into inefficiency and converting enough of its own possessions to stay within striking distance late.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NAVY | EV | HAMP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -125 | +8.6% | +105 | -14.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -135 | +6.7% | -102 | -15.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 138.5 | -110 | -6.5% | -110 | +1.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 138.5 | -110 | -6.5% | -110 | +1.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 138.5 | -110 | -6.5% | -110 | +1.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 138.5 | -110 | -6.5% | -110 | +1.9% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Navy 65% to beat Hampton (35%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Navy the more likely winner at 65%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Navy a 65% chance of beating Hampton, against 35% for Hampton. Navy are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Hampton (0-2 so far) project to finish 8.4–20.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Navy (2-1 so far) project to finish 18.8–11.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Hampton and Navy come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.