NCAAB
Lafayette
2-2
St. Bonaventure
2-1
Win Probability
St. Bonaventure hosts Lafayette in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Bonnies. Lafayette's scoring will be crucial; the Diplomats project to 62.4 points, and keeping them below that mark is where St. Bonaventure must execute. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's favored side has won 97% of 632 graded contests. For Lafayette to pull the upset, the visitors would need to generate efficient scoring in volume—a difficult ask when the home team is projected to reach the upper 70s. The game hinges on whether St. Bonaventure can sustain its pace while Lafayette struggles to score in transition.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | SBU | EV | LAF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -1200 | -0.2% | +750 | -15.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -2659 | -2.3% | +914 | -8.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 139.5 | -115 | +2.1% | -105 | -6.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 140.5 | -110 | +0.7% | -110 | -5.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 140 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes St. Bonaventure 92% to beat Lafayette (8%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes St. Bonaventure the more likely winner at 92%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives St. Bonaventure a 92% chance of beating Lafayette, against 8% for Lafayette. St. Bonaventure are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Lafayette (0-2 so far) project to finish 11.5–18.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
St. Bonaventure (2-1 so far) project to finish 19.4–11.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lafayette | 11.5–18.5 | 5% | 5% |
| St. Bonaventure | 19.4–11.6 | 7% | 17% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Lafayette and St. Bonaventure come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Lafayette have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
St. Bonaventure have won 2 of their last 3 (W-W-L, most recent first).