Manhattan
1-2
Le Moyne
1-2
Win Probability
Manhattan travels to face Le Moyne in a matchup between evenly matched teams, each holding 1-2 records. The simulation favors the host, though the margin reflects how close these teams truly are. Le Moyne's offense will need to sustain scoring pressure; Manhattan's defense must tighten if the visitors are to pull the upset. In games where the model has leaned this way, the favored side won 68% of the time across over 2,000 graded contests. For Manhattan to leave with a win, it would need to generate efficient scoring while holding Le Moyne well below its projected output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | LEM | EV | MAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -165 | +3.4% | +135 | -10.6% |
| BetRivers ↗ | -190 | +0.7% | +148 | -8.5% |
| betPARX ↗ | -190 | +0.7% | +148 | -8.5% |
| TwinSpires ↗ | -190 | +0.7% | +148 | -8.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -181 | +1.6% | -215 | -25.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 148.5 | -115 | -1.2% | -105 | -3.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -0.2% | -110 | -4.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 149 | -110 | -1.2% | -110 | -3.2% |
| BetRivers ↗ | 148.5 | -104 | +1.2% | -121 | -6.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 66.5%
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Le Moyne 67% to beat Manhattan (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Le Moyne the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Le Moyne a 67% chance of beating Manhattan, against 34% for Manhattan. Le Moyne are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Manhattan (1-2 so far) project to finish 11.5–19.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Le Moyne (0-2 so far) project to finish 14.0–15.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Manhattan and Le Moyne come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.