NCAAB
Northwestern State
1-3
Little Rock
0-3
Win Probability
Northwestern State travels to face Little Rock in a game where the simulation strongly favors the home side. The Razorbacks project to win decisively, though the outcome hinges on whether either team can generate consistent scoring—AccuScore's model expects a lower-scoring affair, with a 47% chance the combined total exceeds the market line. In games where the model has leaned this heavily toward one side, that side has won 81% of the time across 1,356 graded contests. For Northwestern State to pull the upset, the Wolves would need to impose their pace and limit Little Rock's efficiency at both ends of the floor.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | LR | EV | NWST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -410 | -2.2% | +320 | -1.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -425 | -2.6% | +325 | -0.7% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -505 | -4.0% | +286 | -5.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 143 | -110 | -1.8% | -110 | -2.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 144.5 | -125 | -7.8% | -147 | -5.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Little Rock 77% to beat Northwestern State (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Little Rock the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Little Rock a 77% chance of beating Northwestern State, against 23% for Northwestern State. Little Rock are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northwestern State (0-3 so far) project to finish 9.4–20.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Little Rock (0-3 so far) project to finish 11.0–19.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northwestern State | 9.4–20.6 | 1% | 1% |
| Little Rock | 11.0–19.0 | 6% | 5% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Northwestern State and Little Rock come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Northwestern State have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).
Little Rock have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).