Morgan State
3-1
Loyola Maryland
1-3
Win Probability
Morgan State travels to Loyola Maryland in a coin-flip matchup where the simulation barely favors the hosts. Alfred Worrell Jr. of Morgan State has a 46% chance to exceed 29 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Loyola Maryland's D'Andre Harrison projects at 48% to surpass 23. The game turns on perimeter execution—both offenses are projected in the high 70s, suggesting that shooting efficiency will separate the teams down the stretch. AccuScore's model has favored sides in this win-probability range in 6,737 graded games, winning 57% of them. For Morgan State to pull the upset on the road, the Bears would need Worrell or Keith Richard to impose themselves early and establish a pace advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | L-MD | EV | MORG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -110 | -0.1% | -110 | -4.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -110 | -0.1% | -110 | -4.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -115 | -1.1% | -152 | -10.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 150.5 | -115 | +2.1% | -105 | -6.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 151.5 | -110 | +0.4% | -110 | -4.9% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 151 | -110 | +1.9% | -110 | -6.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 151.5 | -1120 | -21.2% | -1736 | -25.0% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Loyola Maryland 52% to beat Morgan State (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Loyola Maryland the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Loyola Maryland a 52% chance of beating Morgan State, against 48% for Morgan State. Loyola Maryland are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Morgan State (1-1 so far) project to finish 11.6–15.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Loyola Maryland (0-3 so far) project to finish 11.1–17.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morgan State | 11.6–15.4 | 13% | 11% |
| Loyola Maryland | 11.1–17.9 | 6% | 5% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Morgan State and Loyola Maryland come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Morgan State have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
Loyola Maryland have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).