NCAAB
Iowa
2-1
Creighton
2-1
Win Probability
Iowa travels to Creighton in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the visiting Hawkeyes. The game hinges on three-point shooting: Iowa's projected volume from deep has a 61% chance of exceeding their season rate, while Creighton's perimeter accuracy sits at 54% to stay within their established range. Across eight similar games where the model leaned this strongly toward the visitor, the favored side won four times. For Creighton to pull off the upset at home, they would need to suppress Iowa's outside stroke while significantly outperforming their own baseline from range.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CREI | EV | IOWA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | +158 | -6.5% | -192 | +0.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +150 | -7.9% | -180 | +1.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -271 | -26.9% | -197 | -0.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | 146 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 66.3%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa 66% to beat Creighton (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Creighton a 34% chance of beating Iowa, against 66% for Iowa. Creighton are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Iowa (2-1 so far) project to finish 20.0–12.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 72% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Creighton (2-1 so far) project to finish 14.1–15.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 31% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Iowa and Creighton come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 2 times since 2011: Iowa 0, Creighton 2. The last meeting, on Nov 13, 2023, finished Iowa 84, Creighton 92.