Niagara
0-3
Iowa State
2-1
Win Probability
Niagara travels to Iowa State looking to break out of a 0-3 start against a Cyclones team that has won two of three at home. The simulation heavily favours the hosts. Iowa State's depth will be tested early: their top perimeter threat projects to exceed 18 points in 97% of outcomes, while Niagara's leading scorer has just a 34% chance to reach 15. The game turns on whether the Eagles can generate enough perimeter shooting to keep pace with Iowa State's pace. In 655 comparable games where the model leaned this heavily toward one side, that side won 97% of the time. Niagara would need a historic shooting night and early defensive pressure to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | ISU | EV | NIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -100000 | -0.0% | +20000 | -39.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 142.5 | -110 | -2.4% | -110 | -2.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 143.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | 143.5 | -102 | -3.3% | -125 | -2.5% |
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Niagara (0-3 so far) project to finish 8.7–21.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Iowa State (2-1 so far) project to finish 21.3–8.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 85% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Niagara | 8.7–21.3 | 1% | 1% |
| Iowa State | 21.3–8.7 | 12% | 85% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State 100% to beat Niagara (0%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Iowa State the more likely winner at 100%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Iowa State a 100% chance of beating Niagara, against 0% for Niagara. Iowa State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Niagara and Iowa State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Niagara have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).
Iowa State have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).