Harvard
2-2
American University
1-2
Win Probability
Harvard travels to American University in a coin-flip matchup that the model favors barely to the home side. Both offenses will need to execute in tight spacing: Harvard's projected output hinges on production from key contributors, while American University's path to victory runs through similar offensive execution. This game turns on whether either team can consistently score in the high 60s, with the simulation projecting a near-standstill. In games where AccuScore leaned this slightly to one side, that side won 57% of the time across 6,747 graded contests. Harvard would need American University to fall short of its projected offensive output to pull off the upset on the road.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | AMER | EV | HARV | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics ↗ | -105 | +0.5% | -115 | -4.9% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -393 | -17.6% | -129 | -7.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 136.5 | -110 | -8.4% | -110 | +3.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 136.5 | -110 | -8.4% | -110 | +3.8% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes American University 52% to beat Harvard (48%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes American University the more likely winner at 52%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives American University a 52% chance of beating Harvard, against 48% for Harvard. American University are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Harvard (0-2 so far) project to finish 11.0–15.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
American University (1-2 so far) project to finish 16.2–14.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Harvard | 11.0–15.0 | 11% | 9% |
| American University | 16.2–14.8 | 21% | 17% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Harvard and American University come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
American University have won 1 of their last 3 (W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2023: Harvard 1, American University 0. The last meeting, on Nov 28, 2023, finished American University 75, Harvard 80.