Cal State Bakersfield
3-0
North Dakota State
2-3
Win Probability
Moneyline
CSUB
-225
28.6% win prob
EV -29.3%
Polymarket
Moneyline
NDSU
-10969
71.4% win prob
EV -14.0%
Polymarket
Cal State Bakersfield travels to North Dakota State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the host. The Roadrunners arrive undefeated at 3-0, but AccuScore leans emphatically toward the Bison, who project to win by a decisive margin. North Dakota State's defense will be tested early; in games where the model has favored one side this strongly across its history, that side won 81 percent of the time. The game hinges on whether Cal State Bakersfield can keep pace offensively—the simulation suggests a close first half may give way to separation late. For the Roadrunners to pull the upset, they would need to overcome both the home-court advantage and a Bison team positioned to control the pace.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NDSU | EV | CSUB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -10969 | -14.0% | -225 | -29.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 156.5 | -110 | +3.3% | -110 | -7.8% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes North Dakota State 71% to beat Cal State Bakersfield (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Dakota State the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives North Dakota State a 71% chance of beating Cal State Bakersfield, against 29% for Cal State Bakersfield. North Dakota State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Cal State Bakersfield (2-0 so far) project to finish 10.8–19.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
North Dakota State (1-3 so far) project to finish 14.3–14.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 20% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cal State Bakersfield | 10.8–19.2 | 1% | 1% |
| North Dakota State | 14.3–14.7 | 25% | 20% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Cal State Bakersfield and North Dakota State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Cal State Bakersfield have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
North Dakota State have won 1 of their last 4 (W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2025: Cal State Bakersfield 1, North Dakota State 1. The last meeting, on Nov 8, 2026, finished North Dakota State 80, Cal State Bakersfield 91.