NCAAB
Baylor
3-0
#7Texas
3-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Baylor travels to face undefeated Texas in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side clearly. The Bears have a 33% path to victory, with the game turning on whether their offense can sustain production against Texas's defense; AccuScore projects Baylor to score 78.4 points, below the 83.5 it assigns to the Longhorns. In similar games where the model has leaned this strongly toward the home team, that side won 68% of the time across 2,212 graded matchups. For Baylor to pull the upset, it would need to limit Texas's scoring substantially below projection or generate additional possessions to widen the final margin in its favor.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TEX | EV | BAY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -225 | -1.4% | +185 | -3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -230 | -1.7% | +188 | -2.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -240 | -2.3% | +196 | -1.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -225 | -1.4% | +190 | -2.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -235 | -2.0% | +190 | -2.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 160.5 | -115 | -1.3% | -105 | -3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 160.5 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 158.5 | -115 | +3.5% | -105 | -8.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 160 | -110 | +1.0% | -110 | -5.4% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Texas 67% to beat Baylor (33%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Texas a 67% chance of beating Baylor, against 33% for Baylor. Texas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Baylor (3-0 so far) project to finish 18.9–10.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 72% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Texas (3-0 so far) project to finish 22.0–9.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 83% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Baylor and Texas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 15 times since 2012: Baylor 9, Texas 6. The last meeting, on Mar 3, 2024, finished Texas 85, Baylor 93.