San Diego State
3-0
New Mexico State
1-2
Win Probability
Moneyline
SDSU
-10969
88.5% win prob
EV -5.3%
Polymarket
Moneyline
NMSU
+125
11.5% win prob
EV -37.1%
Polymarket
San Diego State travels to face New Mexico State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the Aztecs. The model projects a gap in efficiency that would require the Aggies to substantially tighten their defence; AccuScore's simulation favoured one side this decisively in 811 past games, and that side won 92% of them. San Diego State's offence will likely be the deciding factor, with the team's scoring depth tested against New Mexico State's ability to limit possessions. For the hosts to pull the upset, they would need to force turnovers and run their own pace rather than let the visitors control tempo.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NMSU | EV | SDSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | +125 | -37.1% | -10969 | -5.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 143.5 | -115 | +0.1% | -105 | -4.7% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego State 89% to beat New Mexico State (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Diego State the more likely winner at 89%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New Mexico State a 12% chance of beating San Diego State, against 89% for San Diego State. New Mexico State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
San Diego State (3-0 so far) project to finish 17.8–9.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 44% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New Mexico State (0-2 so far) project to finish 9.7–18.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| San Diego State | 17.8–9.2 | 10% | 44% |
| New Mexico State | 9.7–18.3 | 4% | 3% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How San Diego State and New Mexico State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
San Diego State have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).
New Mexico State have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).