Mercyhurst
1-3
James Madison
1-2
Win Probability
Mercyhurst travels to James Madison in a matchup between teams still finding their footing early in the season. The simulation favours the home side decisively, projecting a double-digit margin. James Madison's offense will need to execute efficiently; the model gives the Dukes a 68% chance to eclipse 77 points. For Mercyhurst to stay competitive, their defence must disrupt that pace and keep James Madison below its projection, a tall task given how strongly the numbers lean toward the hosts. In similar spots historically, the favoured team won 92 of its last 100 graded games.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | JMU | EV | MERC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | -4.4% | +120 | -38.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 139.5 | -115 | +0.3% | -105 | -4.9% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes James Madison 90% to beat Mercyhurst (11%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes James Madison the more likely winner at 90%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives James Madison a 90% chance of beating Mercyhurst, against 11% for Mercyhurst. James Madison are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Mercyhurst (0-3 so far) project to finish 10.4–18.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
James Madison (1-2 so far) project to finish 16.8–12.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercyhurst | 10.4–18.6 | 10% | 0% |
| James Madison | 16.8–12.2 | 13% | 11% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Mercyhurst and James Madison come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Mercyhurst have won 0 of their last 3 (L-L-L, most recent first).
James Madison have won 1 of their last 3 (W-L-L, most recent first).