Pepperdine
2-2
Oregon
3-0
Win Probability
Pepperdine travels to face Oregon in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Ducks have started 3-0 while the Waves sit at 2-2, and AccuScore projects this as a comfortable home win. Oregon's depth will be tested early: the model gives Pepperdine's leading scorer a 38% chance of exceeding 18 points, while Oregon's top option has a 71% chance to reach 22. In games where the model has favoured one side this strongly across eight comparable situations, that side won all eight. For Pepperdine to pull off the upset, their perimeter defence would need to force enough Oregon turnovers to disrupt the home team's rhythm.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | ORE | EV | PEPP | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | -3.2% | +1418 | +10.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 160.5 | -105 | -3.2% | -115 | -1.3% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon 92% to beat Pepperdine (8%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon the more likely winner at 92%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oregon a 92% chance of beating Pepperdine, against 8% for Pepperdine. Oregon are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Pepperdine (0-2 so far) project to finish 14.1–15.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oregon (3-0 so far) project to finish 15.8–14.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 37% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pepperdine | 14.1–15.9 | 2% | 3% |
| Oregon | 15.8–14.2 | 1% | 37% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Pepperdine and Oregon come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Pepperdine have won 0 of their last 2 (L-L, most recent first).
Oregon have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).