Canisius
2-2
Buffalo
1-2
Win Probability
Buffalo hosts Canisius in a contest where the simulation decisively favors the Bulls. Canisius arrives at 2-2 while Buffalo sits at 1-2, yet the model's strong lean toward the home side held up in 92 percent of 811 similarly shaped games across the sport. The game turns on three-point shooting; Buffalo's offensive efficiency projections depend on whether it can consistently knock down perimeter shots, while Canisius will need to limit second chances. For Canisius to pull the upset, the Golden Griffins would need to force Buffalo into an unusually poor shooting night and win the rebounding battle decisively.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | BUF | EV | CAN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | -4.9% | -135 | -40.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 152.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo 89% to beat Canisius (11%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Buffalo the more likely winner at 89%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Buffalo a 89% chance of beating Canisius, against 11% for Canisius. Buffalo are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Canisius (1-2 so far) project to finish 10.8–20.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Buffalo (0-2 so far) project to finish 9.4–19.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Canisius and Buffalo come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 6 times since 2011: Canisius 2, Buffalo 4. The last meeting, on Nov 29, 2025, finished Buffalo 71, Canisius 53.