Texas State
4-0
UTSA
2-1
Win Probability
Moneyline
TXST
-582
68.3% win prob
EV -10.0%
Polymarket
Moneyline
UTSA
-160
31.7% win prob
EV -24.2%
Polymarket
Texas State travels to San Antonio to face UTSA in a matchup the simulation favors the Bobcats clearly. The projection hinges on perimeter scoring: Texas State's depth here outguns a UTSA side that will need its own outside threats to keep pace. In games where AccuScore leaned this strongly toward the visiting team, that side won 68% of 2,212 graded contests. For the Roadrunners to pull the upset, they would need to control the tempo and force Texas State into an uncharacteristically poor shooting night.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | UTSA | EV | TXST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -160 | -24.2% | -582 | -10.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -115 | +0.8% | -105 | -5.4% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State 68% to beat UTSA (32%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Texas State the more likely winner at 68%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UTSA a 32% chance of beating Texas State, against 68% for Texas State. UTSA are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Texas State (3-0 so far) project to finish 16.5–14.5 and make the NCAA Tournament in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UTSA (2-1 so far) project to finish 11.4–18.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State | 16.5–14.5 | 1% | 8% |
| UTSA | 11.4–18.6 | 1% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Texas State and UTSA come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas State have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
UTSA have won 2 of their last 3 (W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Texas State 1, UTSA 0. The last meeting, on Nov 11, 2025, finished UTSA 69, Texas State 80.