NCAAB
Air Force
3-1
Pacific
2-1
Win Probability
Pacific hosts Air Force in a matchup where the simulation strongly favours the home side. Grant Best has a 49% chance of exceeding 21 combined points, rebounds and assists for Air Force, but he will face a Pacific roster where Adriel Nyorha projects to clear 27 combined in 48% of outcomes and Connor Amundsen sits at 49%. The game turns on whether Air Force's visitors can generate enough offensive production to stay within range; AccuScore's model won 91% of 815 games shaped this decisively in favour of the home team. For Air Force to pull the upset, Best and Kam Sanders would both need to sustain their offensive output while Pacific's depth fails to materialise as expected.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Pacific 88% to beat Air Force (12%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Pacific the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Pacific a 88% chance of beating Air Force, against 12% for Air Force. Pacific are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Air Force (2-1 so far) project to finish 9.0–22.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Pacific (1-1 so far) project to finish 16.2–13.8 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Air Force and Pacific come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The teams have met 3 times since 2017: Air Force 0, Pacific 3. The last meeting, on Dec 2, 2025, finished Pacific 80, Air Force 65.