Western Kentucky
3-1
Tulsa
3-0
Win Probability
Western Kentucky travels to face Tulsa in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. The model's lean this strong has proved out in similar spots: across games shaped like this one, the favored team won 81% of the time. Tulsa's scoring and three-point shooting will be central to whether the Hurricanes can build on their undefeated start, while Western Kentucky's depth on both ends will determine whether the Hilltoppers can keep pace. The game turns on three-point volume and accuracy—the simulation projects a combined 49% probability the total goes over. For Western Kentucky to pull the upset, their ball movement and defensive intensity would need to suppress Tulsa's efficiency in ways the model does not expect.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | TLSA | EV | WKU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -220 | +3.2% | +180 | -12.3% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -215 | +3.5% | +175 | -13.0% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -582 | -7.2% | +125 | -19.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 159.5 | -110 | -3.7% | -110 | -0.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 73.1%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Tulsa 73% to beat Western Kentucky (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tulsa the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tulsa a 73% chance of beating Western Kentucky, against 27% for Western Kentucky. Tulsa are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Western Kentucky (1-1 so far) project to finish 13.8–15.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 9% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tulsa (2-0 so far) project to finish 19.9–10.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky | 13.8–15.2 | 11% | 9% |
| Tulsa | 19.9–10.1 | 17% | 22% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Western Kentucky and Tulsa come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Western Kentucky have won 1 of their last 2 (L-W, most recent first).
Tulsa have won 2 of their last 2 (W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2025: Western Kentucky 0, Tulsa 1. The last meeting, on Dec 18, 2025, finished Tulsa 82, Western Kentucky 81.