NCAAB
The Citadel
3-1
Clemson
3-1
Win Probability
Clemson hosts The Citadel in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the Tigers. AccuScore's model projects a comfortable margin built on offensive execution: Clemson's scoring is expected to reach the low-to-mid 80s, while The Citadel's defence will struggle to keep pace. The game turns on whether The Citadel can generate consistent perimeter shooting and limit second-chance opportunities, as slowing Clemson's pace becomes essential. In 658 past games where the model leaned this heavily toward one side, that side won 97 percent of the time. For The Citadel to pull the upset, they would need to win the turnover battle decisively and convert at an unusually high rate from three-point range.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | CLEM | EV | CIT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -10000 | -1.1% | +3000 | -0.4% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -10000 | -1.1% | +3500 | +7.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -36823 | -1.5% | +269 | -44.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 147.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 145.5 | -105 | +1.4% | -115 | -5.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 147 | -110 | -3.8% | -110 | -0.6% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Clemson 97% to beat The Citadel (3%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Clemson the more likely winner at 97%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Clemson a 97% chance of beating The Citadel, against 3% for The Citadel. Clemson are at home and favoured on these numbers.
The Citadel (1-1 so far) project to finish 12.0–17.0 and make the NCAA Tournament in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Clemson (3-1 so far) project to finish 15.9–14.1 and make the NCAA Tournament in 29% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| The Citadel | 12.0–17.0 | 4% | 4% |
| Clemson | 15.9–14.1 | 2% | 29% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How The Citadel and Clemson come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
The Citadel have won 1 of their last 2 (W-L, most recent first).
Clemson have won 3 of their last 4 (L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2011: The Citadel 0, Clemson 2. The last meeting, on Jan 1, 2013, finished The Citadel 51, Clemson 92.