NCAAB
Richmond
3-1
Virginia Tech
4-0
Win Probability
Richmond travels to face Virginia Tech in a matchup that decisively favours the home side. The simulation projects a gap of 13 points, built on Virginia Tech's ability to control pace and execution—areas where the Hokies have thrived through four undefeated games. Richmond's 3-1 record keeps this competitive on paper, but the model's confidence is severe: in 815 comparable situations, the favoured side won 91% of the time. For Richmond to pull the upset, the Spiders would need to force Virginia Tech into uncharacteristic inefficiency and manufacture scoring well above their season average. The total sits near the midpoint of outcomes, making this a game shaped entirely by whether Virginia Tech's depth can wear down a visiting team.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | VT | EV | RICH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | -1400 | -3.9% | +800 | +12.6% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -900 | -2.2% | +600 | -1.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -5429 | -6.2% | +210 | -28.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -1.3% | -105 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 154.5 | -115 | -1.3% | -105 | -3.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | 155 | -110 | -1.4% | -110 | -3.0% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Virginia Tech 86% to beat Richmond (14%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Virginia Tech the more likely winner at 86%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Virginia Tech a 86% chance of beating Richmond, against 14% for Richmond. Virginia Tech are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Richmond (2-1 so far) project to finish 17.6–13.4 and make the NCAA Tournament in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Virginia Tech (4-0 so far) project to finish 21.3–10.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 56% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Richmond | 17.6–13.4 | 5% | 13% |
| Virginia Tech | 21.3–10.7 | 5% | 56% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Richmond and Virginia Tech come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Richmond have won 2 of their last 3 (L-W-W, most recent first).
Virginia Tech have won 3 of their last 3 (W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: Richmond 0, Virginia Tech 1. The last meeting, on Mar 18, 2024, finished Richmond 58, Virginia Tech 74.