Columbia
3-1
Northwestern
3-1
Win Probability
Columbia travels to Northwestern in a matchup that heavily favors the hosts. AccuScore's simulation leans decisively toward Northwestern, projecting a game decided by perimeter shooting and ball security in the Wildcats' favor. Columbia will need to convert at a high rate from three and force turnovers to stay competitive; in 815 similar games where the model leaned this strongly toward one side, that side won 91% of the time. For the Lions to pull off the upset, they would need efficient offensive execution and a significant edge on the glass to overcome Northwestern's projected advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | NU | EV | COLU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -2659 | -5.6% | +191 | -29.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet ↗ | 139.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.4% |
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Northwestern 86% to beat Columbia (14%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Northwestern the more likely winner at 86%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Northwestern a 86% chance of beating Columbia, against 14% for Columbia. Northwestern are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Columbia (2-1 so far) project to finish 14.8–12.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Northwestern (3-1 so far) project to finish 14.8–17.2 and make the NCAA Tournament in 22% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia | 14.8–12.2 | 15% | 11% |
| Northwestern | 14.8–17.2 | <1% | 22% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Columbia and Northwestern come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Columbia have won 2 of their last 3 (W-W-L, most recent first).
Northwestern have won 3 of their last 4 (L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2018: Columbia 0, Northwestern 1. The last meeting, on Dec 30, 2018, finished Columbia 54, Northwestern 75.